A major poll done in Arabic by Arabs on behalf of Greenberg Research and funded by The Israel Project, a non-profit organization devoted to security and peace, shows that Hamas’s standing has fallen dramatically in the Palestinian territories.
(PowerPoint)
Indeed, if an election were held today, Hamas would lose to Fatah. In the poll Hamas trails Fatah by 10 points in an election match-up (39 to 29 percent). Fatah leads decisively in the West Bank (45 to 28 percent), and the race is tied in Gaza (33 to 30 percent). While the public polls showed similar numbers for the last elections in the Palestinian territories, there is reason to believe the climate is very different for Hamas now and that it is seen as part of the problem rather than a solution.
Palestinians strongly disapprove of the job Hamas is doing, particularly in Gaza, where 58 percent disapprove, including 42 percent who “strongly” disapprove. Abbas has a higher approval rating than Hamas, not only in the West Bank (71 to 37 percent) but in Gaza (48 to 38 percent).
“There is good reason why President Abbas has been calling for early elections. Palestinians are intensely turning away from Hamas. If an election were held today, Hamas would lose, reflecting a monumental shift in Palestinian political land-scape,” said Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg, PhD.
Hamas’s decline has been propelled by the Gaza crisis, which is seen as a disaster by Palestinians. Hamas bears a considerable amount of blame from Arabs polled for the crisis in Gaza. When asked who is more to blame for the current crisis in Gaza – Israel, Hamas, or both – half of the public in the Palestinian territories (including in Gaza) say both or Hamas.
The reaction to Hamas’ response to Israel’s disengagement from Gaza is a powerful part of Hamas’ damaged standing. Majorities of Palestinians in Gaza (51 percent) and the West Bank (57 percent) support a freeze on rockets fired into Israel.
That two-thirds in Gaza also believe it is important that Hamas release Israeli solider Gilad Shalit is an important statement on the gap between the Palestinian public and Hamas.
Dr. Ziad Asali, President of the American Task Force on Palestine, was not surprised to learn of the poll results. He said “We are working for a two-state solution that will deliver a better future for both Palestinians and Israelis. Already security and economic cooperation with Israel is bringing some important progress. With the success of the Palestinian security forces, Israel has removed many roadblocks and checkpoints –- bringing more freedom of movement to Palestinians in the West Bank. Local business people in the West Bank are able to take advantage of these developments so there is a new and promising economic activity. For this to be an early “peace dividend” that leads to a real and lasting peace for both sides, Israel will have to make serious compromises on settlements and borders. Pales-tinians will have to continue doing their part on security and on building the insti-tutions of a state. Both parties would have to match their words with their deeds to put both people on an irreversible path for successful and dignified coexistence. That kind of future can only be an independent state of Palestine living alongside Israel in peace.”
Greenberg conducted 2 focus groups in Ramallah, West Bank on May 7, 2009. From July 7- August 4, 2009, Greenberg fielded a nationally representative survey in the West Bank (286 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 5.79) and Gaza (259 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 6.09 percent). The survey was conducted in face-to-face interviews in Arabic as a part of The Israel Project’s Arabic Peace Project.
About The Israel Project’s Arabic Peace Project: The Israel Project’s (TIP) Arabic Media Program is breaking ground --- undertaking public opinion research in Egypt, Jordan, the West Bank and Gaza to find out what Israel’s closest neighbors really think and want -- and how to encourage them to embrace lasting peace. The Israel Project is working for peace by reaching out to journalists because the media are the lens through which the Arab world sees Israel.
Currently Arabic media shows very few of Israel’s many efforts for peace, the large number of coexistence programs carried out by Jews and Arabs who want peace, or the rights of Israeli Arabs. In response, TIP is reaching out to 5,000 Ara-bic-language media to provide them with access to facts, sources and information so they can offer more complete coverage. So far, more than 2,000 reporters in places such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Jerusalem are opening TIP’s factual materials in Arabic.
